Back to the Future (of Payments)

I orginally published this on October 21, 2015

Unless you have a time machine it is difficult to predict the future. 5 years ago I predicted that I would be able to leave my house with only my smart phone, meaning I could make payments, start my car and open my house using just my phone.

Okay, so I was a little off and we are not quite there yet. But the payments industry has seen new great new NFC-based technologies, such as Apple Pay and Android Pay (and others) that are reducing the friction at the point of sale and improving the customer experience. Personally, I am very happy that I can now leave my house with only with my phone and keys (at least when I know I am going to spend under £30).

Looking back even further; with online-commerce came predictions of the fall of the high street and although it is clear that eCommerce sales account for an ever growing percentage of global commerce and many major high streets look very different today than fifteen years ago, I don't think we should fear their downfall just yet. In fact the latest round of Something-Pay technologies has given the high street a boost by improving the checkout experience.

Of course, the key for the survival of the high street, especially for the ever impatient Generation Z, is instant fulfillment. On the high street there are mostly no shipping costs, billing addresses, passwords to remember or delivery time slots. You can walk in, you swipe your phone and tap your thumb and walk out, instantly fulfilled.

But is online commerce fighting back once again?

If same-day delivery is the last frontier for ecommerce to win its war with the high street , then some likely and not-so-likely companies are working on bringing about the final downfall of the high street or at least are working on some interesting same-day delivery solutions. For example, Shopify and Uber are teaming up to 'reinvent local shipping' and Amazon are thinking big with their autonomous drone technology

So where does this leave the high street? Well, my current 'not so bold prediction' is that the high street will survive for many future generations, but the two channels (online and offline) will consolidate and eventually become indistinguishable. Retailers will not have a 'retail strategy' along side an 'online strategy', they will just have a strategy. There will be a single customer experience and the only question will be that of fulfillment. I also hope that I'll be able to buy more than £30 via my phone in 5 years.

Let me know what you think!